The hottest steel market is extremely depressed. S

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The steel market is extremely depressed. Steel mills and steel traders predict the trend of steel prices

the "10th China steel industry chain strategic development and Investment Summit" hosted by China United Steel and Hebei Iron and Steel Group Tangshan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., guided by China Iron and steel Industry Association and co organized by United metal was grandly held in Tangshan, Hebei Province on November 24

at the end of the meeting, a dialogue program "how to cope with the cold winter and improve the value of the steel industry chain" was held. The guests participating in the dialogue with the button function of the @b panel included Li Chundong, director of the sales company of Shougang Corporation, Li Chunliang, chairman of Tianjin Runfei Trade Co., Ltd., sun Pei, Shanghai gangzhiyuan electronic commerce Co., Ltd., Chai Shuman, Secretary of the Party committee and director of the strategic planning office of Rongcheng iron and Steel Group Xing Xiuying, deputy general manager of Bazhou Xinya steel, and Zhang Xianyi, assistant general manager of Jiangsu Yonggang group. The dialogue was chaired by lizhiqiang, head of the general management department of Tanggang Guofeng iron and steel group

phenomenon 1: at present, the foreign ore inventory of steel enterprises is mostly at a low level, and some private enterprises, even days, are maintained within 30 days. What do you think is the reason for this phenomenon? What changes do you think this phenomenon will bring to the foreign mining market

Xing Xiuying and Li Chunliang: the low inventory of outside mines in each steel plant is because the steel plants with high inventory in the early stage lost too much money and were afraid of losing money. The low inventory of steel mills makes the price of iron ore difficult to fall and easy to rise. Chongqing screen

phenomenon 2. The current market strip price is significantly higher than the spiral. Take Tangshan as an example: at present, the price difference between 5.5mm common coil is 3730 yuan/ton, mm strip steel is 3500 yuan/ton, two major threads are 3470 yuan/ton, high-speed wire is 3350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the highest and lowest is 380 yuan per ton. What do you think of this phenomenon of two-level differentiation? Will this phenomenon continue

Li Chunliang: from the perspective of trade, the long-term trend is that the demand for building materials is weakening; The demand for structural steel fell by more than half this year; The special oil pump for hot coil can fully meet the requirements of the machine's long-term fatigue test. The export orders in August and September are slightly better, which has increased the demand for building material coils. This situation may continue.

Li Chundong: Shougang does not produce wire rod and deformed steel. In recent months, it is not an accidental phenomenon that the plate and strip is higher than the long material. Any phenomenon must be adjusted after it reaches the peak, just like the medium plate in previous years. I'm afraid that in the long run, the thread screw will follow the plate, because the investment growth rate will decline, but the production capacity of the thread screw rolling line will increase very much, the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, and the plate and strip will be relatively stronger than the thread screw

phenomenon 3. In the first ten days of November, the daily output of crude steel was 1.9567 million tons (at a high level), while the steel inventory was low (the social inventory of steel in the middle of November was 12.0916 million tons). Please explain this phenomenon

sun Pei: personal point of view, in the general environment, the variety adjustment of steel mills has not kept up with the pace of the market. I think this is the reason

Ma Shuchen: the data statistics are not comprehensive, which is questionable. Traders are reluctant to stock due to profit and capital reasons

phenomenon 4. Since September 6 this year, the prices of various steel varieties in the market have begun to rise. Affected by this, the price of iron ore has followed up. Why did most steel enterprises fail to seize the purchasing opportunity before the iron ore rise

Chai Shuman: Taking the low inventory strategy, he was a bit bitten by a snake once and afraid of the well rope for ten years. The reason why he didn't seize the opportunity was that he was not confident in the future market and that he was not judgmental enough. He was not sure how far the steel price would recover

Zhang Xianyi: at that time, he missed the opportunity and mastered more information. In early September, he caught a lot of goods

phenomenon v. the current operation of iron and steel enterprises is uneven. Whether the hot metal investigation operation of some small and medium-sized enterprises is normal; The cost of oiling smooth parts of various equipment is controlled within yuan/ton, or even lower. And many large steel enterprises control at yuan/ton, or even higher. Formed a relatively obvious contrast. What do you think caused this phenomenon

Chai Shuman: the cost of molten iron was 2158 yuan last month. At present, the cost of molten iron has not exceeded 2200 yuan. The blast furnaces of small and medium-sized enterprises are mostly small blast furnaces with 500-600 cubic meters. They are very flexible and can eat miscellaneous materials, such as low-grade iron ore and coke. The purchase cost of raw materials is relatively low. Labor costs are also relatively low. In addition, they are also learning from Tanggang and actively benchmarking

phenomenon in June and October, the price of new commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China rose month on month in 35 cities, an increase of 4 over the previous month, and the real estate market has a warming trend. 1. What do you think of the recent warming of real estate? 2. How long do you think this phenomenon can last

sun Pei: it depends on the number of houses for sale, and there is a gap between the statistical data and the actual feelings of ordinary people. I think the current industry recovery is questionable. I think after the 18th National Congress, domestic small and medium-sized real estate enterprises may not survive next year without considering the impulse of investment

Li Chunliang: he believes that the data is questionable, and it is difficult to draw a conclusion

phenomenon 7. This year, Xinyu Steel established joint ventures with many steel traders in Guangdong and Shanghai. The steel mill wants to seek end customers through steel traders, and the steel traders hope that the steel mill can advance funds and obtain certain resources. To a certain extent, the steel traders have become the direct sales branches of the steel mill; Some steel mills have strengthened their cooperation with Minmetals, Zhejiang products or China Railway by establishing solid sales channels through joint ventures. Do you think they will become a business operation mode similar to that of Japan's steel industry in the future? The steel industry has ended the rapid development of utm7504 z03 ring stiffness testing machine adopted by most of the ten years, and entered the era of low growth and low profit. This year, many steel traders withdrew from the market. What should steel traders do next

Li Chunliang: the traditional model is backward and needs to be classified according to end customers. We must move forward inventory and spot goods, and increase cooperation between steel mills and large steel traders

phenomenon VIII. This year, the steel industry has suffered all losses, and the original agent system has gradually shrunk. Many steel mills are establishing their own direct sales teams and models, such as Baosteel selling through its own e-commerce platform, Rizhao Iron and steel establishing a direct sales team of 200 people, and Hebei Jingye is establishing its own spot sales platform and direct sales team to stabilize its own sales channels and integrate logistics and cash flow. As a manufacturing enterprise, how do you see the transformation of the marketing mode of steel mills

Li Chundong: the agent system is generally challenged, especially this year, especially in the third quarter. Many traders choose to withdraw, and the signing of next year's annual agreements by the end of this year will be significantly blocked. For variety materials, the direct cooperation between steel mills and terminal enterprises is better, while common materials will move towards spot production, such as the establishment of joint ventures between steel mills and traders. The product marketing mode among steel mills will be further differentiated, some will expand the proportion of direct supply, some will expand the proportion of direct sales, and improve the service capacity at the same time

what do you think are the main factors affecting the current market? Futures, production capacity, policies, etc.

Xing Xiuying: first, consider national policies, second, production capacity, and third, futures. We must consider the impact of supply and demand and capital

What do you think of the market before the Spring Festival (or next year)

sun Pei: after the 18th National Congress, steel mills have an impulse to operate, because this impulse will cause prices to rebound after the Spring Festival

xingxiuying: from now on, the ore is weak and downward, and December is the low point, between. The product fell by about 100 yuan in December. If the decline was more than 150, someone would hoard and rise; If it only drops by about 100 yuan in December, and no one hoards goods, the price may not rise

Li Chundong: it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next year, and there is room for steel prices to decline before the Spring Festival, mainly during the year and steadily at the beginning of next year

Chai Shuman: the price fell before the central economic work conference, and then rose slightly. The market in the first half of next year will be better than this year

Li Chunliang: before March next year, the mobile cost will fluctuate around 200 at the low point of futures in stages.

Zhang Xianyi: raw materials and products will decline

at the end of the dialogue, all guests make a conclusion in one sentence

sun Pei: improve the marketing mode and change the business mode

Xing Xiuying: change the original sales status according to the current situation, and operate on the premise of considering the requirements of end customers. Li Chundong:

Chai Shuman: steel is risky, investment should be cautious, management should be scientific, and preparation should be sufficient

Li Chundong: we should take the road of differentiation

finally, Li Zhiqiang thanked all the guests for their support and hoped that everyone would remember today and meet again next year

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