The hottest steel market chases the rise and kills

There are big hidden dangers in the steel market "chasing the rise and killing the fall" and the stock market

after the economic data of the third quarter was released, the market generally believed that the economy had hit the bottom and the worst was over. However, we should also see that the difficulties faced by economic development are indeed not reduced, and the driving force for maintaining sustained economic growth remains crucial. The severe international environment and domestic economic difficulties still make many industries unable to extricate themselves from low profits and losses. The demand of downstream steel industry has not substantially improved. "Steady growth" is still the macro-control keynote before and after the 18th CPC National Congress. Under this situation, the intensity of investment will inevitably increase gradually. In particular, the investment pull of all provinces will increase

judging from the increase of 13 to 22 new railway infrastructure projects, it is obviously an increase in investment in railway construction, which means that railway infrastructure continues to pick up. Coincidentally, in the first three quarters, the national fixed asset investment increased by 20.5% year-on-year, and the monthly cumulative growth rate was 0.3% faster than that of the previous month. Although the actual growth rate is still not high, the effect of government regulation is obvious and tends to be stable. In addition, housing loans are on a growing trend, real estate sales are rebounding, and many investment projects undoubtedly form favorable factors for the steel market. From the strength of rebar futures before and after the double festival, it can be seen that due to the improvement of downstream demand for steel and other factors, the "one trillion" project investment plan prevented rebar futures from falling from 3206 points, and promoted the continuous rise of main contracts to 3600 points, changing the industry's expectation of falling below 3000 points. Steel futures rose by 10% before and after the double festival, which fully shows the role of investment in steel prices. It eased the pressure of losses for steel mills and improved the relationship between steel mills and trade. E-xstream engineering is very happy to cooperate with Kesheng technology to make digimat RP and Moldex3D interface integrator

although the investment is increased, it is also controlling the scale of investment. While stabilizing economic growth, we will resolutely not relax the regulation of the real estate market. While increasing hydropower investment, strict control of thermal power investment reflects the control of investment scale and the adjustment of investment structure compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States

in particular, the relevant person in charge of the comprehensive Department of national economy of the national development and Reform Commission said in an interview with the media on the 24th that at present, the basic orientation of China's economic development is good, but the internal and external environment is still complex. In the future, China will continue to maintain steady growth through four measures: expanding domestic demand, developing the real economy, promoting reform and opening up, and ensuring and improving people's livelihood. This policy trend tells people that under the condition of moderately increasing investment and stabilizing economic growth, we should strengthen the transformation of economic growth mode and reform. This means that moderate investment pull will not bring about substantial long-term growth in steel demand

although the investment pull is beneficial to the steel market to a certain extent, it also enlarges people's judgment on the spot market from the sharp rise and fall of futures. However, as the steel market itself, the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed, and the operation of downstream enterprises has not gone out of trouble. The phased rise in steel prices and the increase in crude steel production in early October are likely to lead to a sharp month on month rise in crude steel production in October, leaving the contradiction between supply and demand still prominent. Steel mills should be vigilant against the negative impact of falling steel prices on the market caused by uncontrolled output and market price competition in steel mills when the economy and investment are transformed to the good. The pressure switch

is also deeply affected by the domestic and international economic situation, and the international steel market is still weak. In September, the global crude steel output was 124 million tons, basically unchanged from the same period last year. China's crude steel output in September increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 58million tons. If China is excluded, the global crude steel production may still decline. This also confirms the decline in steel consumption caused by the economic downturn in the international economy, especially in the euro zone, which is deeply in debt crisis, and drives steel mills to lay off staff and reduce production. Recently, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel company, announced that it would permanently shut down two blast furnaces in florange, northeastern France. Tata Europe steel will continue to lay off workers. It shows that the international steel industry is also facing a severe situation. The weakening of international demand, the rise of the RMB and our willingness to work together with Mongolia have increased pressure on steel exports in the later period

in the domestic steel market, the lower splint 8 is matched with the upper part of the fixture seat 9. After a round of rise, there has been a wave of structural benefits. This intermittent increase must not lead to steel mills blindly increasing production and frequently raising and lowering factory prices. This not only aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic steel market in the later stage, but also deviates from the current stable operation trend of the steel market and economy. As a steel trader, the awareness of preventing price risks cannot be loosened, and there are hidden dangers in "chasing the rise and killing the fall" and hoarding goods